ANALYSIS OF ENTEROVIRUS INFECTION EPIDEMIC SITUATION IN CONSTITUENT ENTITIES OF THE FAR EASTERN AND SIBERIAN FEDERAL DISTRICTS FOR THE YEAR 2019 AND PROGNOSIS OF INCIDENCE ON THE YEAR 2020

Objective of the research – to study features of enterovirus infection (EVI) epidemic process in constituent entities of the Far Eastern and Siberian federal districts (FEFD and SFD) during the year 2019 as well as to conduct a short-term prognosis of incidence for the year 2020.

Materials and methods. Official state statistical reporting forms, charts of epidemiological investigation of EVI outbreaks and records of the Rospotrebnadzor offices and laboratories of viral diseases of hygiene and epidemiology centers of constituent entities of the FEFD and SFD of the Russian Federation were submitted to epidemiologic analysis.

Research results. A seasonal EVI incidence elevation was observed in 12 of 16 constituent entities of the FEFD and SFD supervised by the FBIS Khabarovsk research institute of epidemiology and microbiology of the Rospotrebnadzor (Federal service for surveillance on consumers rights protection and human wellbeing). Deterioration of EVI epidemic situation in several territories of the FEFD and SFD in 2019 was associated with group incidence that was registered in the Khabarovsk, Primorsky and Krasnoyarsk regions, Amur oblast. A potential reason of the group incidence in children’s educational and healthcare institutions in the mentioned territories were carriages of enterovirus strains including those not isolated for a long period of time and imported strains against which children did not have immunity.

Conclusion. Epidemiologic and molecular-genetic investigation of group incidence cases confirmed existence of common source of infection in observed infection sites. The conducted short-term prognosis of EVI incidence for the year 2020 demonstrated a significant tendency towards an increase of incidence almost in all constituent entities of the FEFD and SFD excluding the Khabarovsk region.

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